| Abstract: |
| Climate, especially environmental temperature, plays a critical role in shaping the transmission, evolution, and persistence of highly pathogenic influenza viruses in aquatic birds, thereby driving epidemics in domestic poultry and, eventually, in humans. In this talk, I will present transmission dynamics models of influenza across different scales: aquatic birds, domestic poultry, and humans. Analysis of our data-validated models allows us to identify climate conditions that favor the persistence of highly pathogenic influenza strains among aquatic birds. The models also provide the risk of cross-species transmission and epidemic spread in domestic poultry and humans. Our results indicate that climate functions as a selective filter shaping both the transmission, evolution, and invasion potential of influenza across species. |
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