Special Session 138: Differential Equations and Applications to Biology

A Periodic Reaction-Diffusion-Advection SIS Epidemic Model with a Saturated Incidence Function

Xiaodan Chen
Heilongjiang University
Peoples Rep of China
Co-Author(s):    Xiaodan Chen, Renhao Cui, Xiao-Qiang Zhao
Abstract:
In this talk, we consider a reaction-diffusion-advection SIS epidemic model with a saturated incidence function in a spatio-temporally heterogeneous environment. We introduce the basic reproduction number and establish the threshold dynamics of disease transmission based on this value. For the special case of equal diffusion rates, we prove the global attractivity of both the disease-free and endemic periodic solutions. Furthermore, we explore the asymptotic properties of $\mathcal{R}_0$ in relation to dispersal rates, advection, and total population size, while investigating the influence of the period parameter on the limiting profiles of $\mathcal{R}_0$. Finally, we determine the spatial distribution of the disease when the diffusion rate of the infected population is sufficiently small. Our findings suggest that restricting the movement of infected individuals remains a highly effective strategy for disease elimination.

Spreading speed for a time-periodic vector-borne disease system on a growing domain

Arnaud Ducrot
Universite Le Havre Normandie
France
Co-Author(s):    
Abstract:
This paper is concerned with the study of the asymptotic speed of spread for a time-periodic vector-borne disease system posed on the whole space for the host population and on a time varying domain for the vector population. We firstly examine the spreading properties of a time-periodic Fisher-KPP equation posed on a growing domain by constructing appropriate sub- and super-solutions. Then, using the basic reproduction number of the corresponding kinetic system, we describe the long time behavior of the system. In particular when this basic reproduction number is larger than one, we prove that the epidemic is endemic and we derive some estimates for the spreading speed of the invasion of the disease. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our theoretical results.

Slowly oscillating periodic solutions in a nonlinear Volterra equation with non-symmetric feedback

Quentin GRIETTE
LMAH, University of Le Havre Normandy
France
Co-Author(s):    Franco Herrera
Abstract:
In this work we study a nonlinear Volterra equation with non-symmetric feedback that arises as a particular case of the Gurtin-MacCamy model in population dynamics. We are particularly interested in the existence of slowly oscillating periodic solutions when the trivial stationary state is unstable. Here the absence of symmetry of the nonlinearity prevents the use of many traditional strategies to obtain a priori estimates on the solution. Without a precise knowledge of the period of the solution, we manage to prove the forward invariance of a carefully constructed set of initial data whose properties imply the slowly oscillating character of all continuations. We prove the existence of periodic solutions by constructing a homeomorphism between our set and a convex subset of a different Banach space, thereby showing that it possesses the fixed-point property. Finally, in a singular limit of a parameter, we show that this periodic solution converges to the solution of a well-known discrete difference equation. We conclude the paper with some numerical simulations to illustrate the existence of the periodic orbit as well as the singular limit behavior.

The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails

Daihai He
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Hong Kong
Co-Author(s):    
Abstract:
Previous work has failed to fit classic SEIR epidemic models satisfactorily to the prevalence data of the famous English boarding school 1978 influenza A/H1N1 outbreak during the children`s pandemic. It is still an open question whether a biologically plausible model can fit the prevalence time series and the attack rate correctly. To construct the final model, we first used an intentionally very flexible and overfitted discrete-time epidemiologic model to learn the epidemiological features from the data. The final model was a susceptible (S) - exposed (E) - infectious (I) - confined-to-bed (B) - convalescent (C) - recovered (R) model with time delay (constant residence time) in E and I-compartments and multi-stage (Erlang-distributed residence time) in B and C compartments. We simultaneously fitted the reported B and C prevalence curves as well as the attack rate (proportion of children infected during the outbreak). The non-exponential residence times were crucial for good fits. The estimates of the generation time and the basic reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) were biologically reasonable. A simplified discrete-time model was built and fitted using the Bayesian procedure. Our work not only provided an answer to the open question, but also demonstrated an approach to constructive model generation.

Stochastic theory of gene expression and gene regulation

Chen Jia
Beijing Computational Science Research Center
Peoples Rep of China
Co-Author(s):    
Abstract:
Gene regulatory networks in cells are prototypical examples of complex systems, characterized by highly nonlinear and stochastic, multilevel dynamical interactions. Gaining a deep understanding of the stochastic dynamics and thermodynamic principles governing gene regulatory networks not only helps elucidate the intrinsic mechanisms underlying cell fate decisions and the onset and progression of diseases, but also provides new theoretical paradigms for the study of complex systems. This line of research has become one of the forefront interdisciplinary areas internationally, bridging mathematics, physics, biology, chemistry, data science, and intelligent science. In this talk, I will present our recent research progress in this area, with the hope of stimulating further discussion and inspiring new ideas.

Invariant sets under semiflows via a Lie--Trotter product formula for semilinear evolution equations

Kamal Khalil
LMAH, University of Le Havre Normandie, FR-CNRS-3335, ISCN, Le Havre 76600, France.
France
Co-Author(s):    Arnaud Ducrot & Ousmane Seydi
Abstract:
Using a Lie--Trotter product formula for local semiflows, we derive sufficient conditions for the invariance of closed convex sets for a class of semilinear parabolic evolution equations in Banach spaces. As an application, we study a coupled diffusion--advection--reaction system and provide concrete assumptions on the initial data ensuring the invariance of prescribed convex regions. In particular, the obtained criteria guarantee positivity and uniform bounds for solutions within this class.

Hopf bifurcation in a time-delayed multi-group SIR epidemic model for behavior change

Toshikazu Kuniya
The University of Osaka
Japan
Co-Author(s):    
Abstract:
In this study, we construct a time-delayed multi-group SIR epidemic model to consider the effect of behavior change. We derive the basic reproduction number ${\cal R}_0$ and show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if ${\cal R}_0 < 1$, whereas an endemic equilibrium exists if ${\cal R}_0 > 1$. For a special two-group case with urban and non-urban areas, we obtain sufficient conditions for a Hopf bifurcation which destabilizes the endemic equilibrium and causes a stable limit cycle. By performing the sensitivity analysis, we obtain biological insights that the size of ${\cal R}_0$ and the gap of populations, contact rates and sensitivity of behavior change between urban and non-urban areas can play important roles in the occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation.

Dynamics of Consumer Resource Systems

Rui Li
Shenzhen Technology University
Peoples Rep of China
Co-Author(s):    Rui Li
Abstract:
Consumer--resource models provide a framework for describing interacting populations mediated by shared resources and have been widely used to study the dynamics of complex biological systems. In this work, we examine consumer--resource systems from a dynamical perspective. Starting from simple model settings, we extend the analysis to broader regimes and investigate how structural constraints shape system behavior. Alongside the theoretical analysis, we discuss how these models connect to concrete biological contexts, including ecological and microbial systems. This combination of analytical results and applications provides a unified perspective on consumer--resource dynamics and offers insight into the mechanisms underlying complex biological processes.

Exploring the evolution of maturation time via strong competition model with stage structure

Yifei Li
Harbin Institute of Technology
Peoples Rep of China
Co-Author(s):    Jian Fang, Ming Xu
Abstract:
In evolutionary and ecological sciences, describing the adaptive dynamics of species affected by the phenotype of maturation time is challenging. In this talk, I will introduce a stage-structured two-species competition model in a discrete environment. When competition leads to long-term bistable dynamics, we obtain the existence of pulsating waves of the population by appealing to monotone dynamical system theories. Furthermore, we numerically explore the relationship between the outcome of competition, characterised by the spreading direction of bistable pulsating waves, and the maturation time of species. When the maturation time has an inverse relationship with the competitiveness of the mature population, there may exist an optimal maturation time suggesting an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS).

Propagation dynamics of non-cooperative systems and applications to delayed equations

Guo Lin
Lanzhou University
Peoples Rep of China
Co-Author(s):    
Abstract:
In this talk, we first study the propagation dynamics of the following system \begin{equation}\label{1} \begin{cases} \frac{\partial S(x,t)}{\partial t} =d \frac{\partial^2S(x,t)}{\partial x^2}+f(N(x,t))-\mu S(x,t)-\beta S(x,t)I(x,t), \ \frac{\partial I(x,t)}{\partial t} =d \frac{\partial^2I(x,t)}{\partial x^2}+\beta S(x,t)I(x,t)-(\mu +\gamma )I(x,t)+\delta R(x,t), \ \frac{\partial R(x,t)}{\partial t} =d \frac{\partial^2R(x,t)}{\partial x^2}+\gamma I(x,t)-(\mu +\delta )R(x,t), \end{cases} \end{equation} in which $x\in\mathbb{R}, t>0, $ $N(x,t)=S(x,t)+I(x,t)+R(x,t)$, and all parameters are positive. We investigate the spreading speeds and traveling waves if $N$ has a wave form. Then the idea is utilized to study the propagation dynamics of the following delayed equation \[ \frac{\partial u(x,t)}{\partial t}=\frac{\partial ^{2}u(x,t)}{\partial x^{2}}+u(x,t)F(x+ct,u(x,t),(J*u)(x,t)),\quad x\in\mathbb{R},t>0. \]

Dynamics of a coupled nonlocal PDE-ODE system with spatial memory: well-posedness, stability, and bifurcation analysis

Di Liu
Nankai University
Peoples Rep of China
Co-Author(s):    Yurij Salmaniw, Junping Shi, Hao Wang
Abstract:
Nonlocal aggregation-diffusion models coupled with spatial maps provide a framework to capture cognitive and memory-driven effects in animal movement and population dynamics. In this study, we investigate a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion-aggregation system in which population dynamics are coupled with a dynamically evolving map that modulates movement via nonlocal interactions. We first establish the well-posedness of the coupled PDE-ODE system, and then conduct linear stability analysis to identify critical aggregation parameters. A rigorous bifurcation analysis is performed to characterize steady-state behavior near critical thresholds, including the type of bifurcation and the stability of emerging branches. Our results reveal several key biological insights. The spatial map acts as attractive or repulsive depending on the balance between excitation and adaptation effects. In the absence of growth, only single-peak aggregation occurs, indicating that intraspecific competition is essential for multi-peak pattern formation. Moreover, subcritical bifurcations can induce abrupt shifts in population levels, suggesting tipping-point dynamics under moderate parameter changes.