Special Session 4: Delay and Functional Differential Equations and Applications

Stochastic epidemic model based on Markovian switching with time delay

Hebatallah Alsakaji
UAE University
United Arab Emirates
Co-Author(s):    Fathalla Rihan
Abstract:
The dynamics of disease transmission are influenced by environmental changes. In this study, we incorporate unreported cases (U), environmental disturbances, and external events into the Susceptible; Exposed; Infectious; Unreported; Removed (SEIUR) epidemic model with time delays. We analyze the random transitions between different regimes. The criteria for ergodicity and stationary distribution are explored, and a Lyapunov function is employed to establish conditions under which the disease may be eradicated. Sudden external events, like hurricanes, can significantly impact disease spread during regime transitions. Numerical simulations are used to validate the model and the theoretical findings.