| Abstract: |
| Understanding the epidemiology of emerging vector-borne pathogens in avian populations requires systems investigation at each scale involved in the host, virus transmission cycle, from individual bird infections, to bird-to-vector transmissions, and to viral incidence in bird and vector populations. For new pathogens field data are sparse, and predictions can be aided by the use of laboratory-type inoculation and transmission experiments combined with dynamical mathematical modelling. In this talk, I will present the differences in the dynamics of two strains of such a pathogen - the Usutu virus. I will construct mathematical models for the within-host scale, bird-to-vector transmission scale and vector-borne epidemiological scale and use individual within-host infectious virus data and per cent mosquito infection data to predict virus incidence in birds and mosquitoes. I will address the dependence of predictions on model structure, data uncertainty and experimental design. |
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