| Abstract: |
| The timing of peak dengue cases in Brazil remains inconsistent from year to year. Our analysis of surveillance data from 2000 to 2014 reveals this variability both over time and across states. We hypothesise that several factors, including climate variability, the circulation of different dengue serotypes, and the introduction of new serotypes may be driving the shifting.
To better understand these dynamics, we employed temperature-driven multi-strain dengue transmission models. Preliminary findings suggest that the timing of introducing a new serotype can cause the timing of outbreaks to vary across locations, likely as a result of variations in environmental conditions, particularly temperature, across Brazil. |
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