| Abstract: |
| Human movement not only facilitates disease spread but also poses a serious challenge to disease control and eradication. In reality, disease eradication is rather difficult or even impossible for any infectious diseases. Thus, reducing disease prevalence (proportion of people being infected) to a low level is more feasible and cost-effective goal. The basic reproduction number can serve as a threshold for disease persistence and extinction, but it usually cannot measure the endemic level. In this talk, based on an SIS patch model, I will explore the impact of the movement of susceptible and infected populations on the local and global disease prevalence. In particular, for the two-patch case, two complete classifications of the model parameter space are given: one addressing when dispersal leads to larger or smaller global disease prevalence than no dispersal, and the other concerning how the global disease prevalence varies with dispersal rate. Some results on an SIAR patch model will also be given and compared. This is a joint work with Yuan Lou, Ailing Wang and Xin Li. |
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