| Abstract: |
| Malaria is a vector borne disease that poses significant health challenges globally with the highest burden in children under 5 years old. Prevention and treatment have been the main intervention measures until the recent groundbreaking highly recommended malaria vaccine by WHO for children below five. A two group malaria model structured by age with vaccination of individuals aged below 5 years old is formulated and theoretically analyzed. The disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the disease-induced death rate in both human groups is zero. Descarte rule of signs discusses the possible existence of multiple endemic equilibria. By construction, mathematical models inherit the loss of information that could make the prediction of model outcomes imprecise. Thus, a global sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the vaccination class as response functions using Latin Hypercube Sampling in combination with partial rank correlation coefficient are graphically depicted. The most sensitive parameters relate to children under 5 years old. Applying optimal control theory, the best combination of intervention measures to mitigate the spread of malaria is investigated. Simulation results show that concurrently applying the three intervention measures, namely: personal protection, treatment and vaccination of children under five is the best strategy for fighting against the malaria epidemic in any community relative to using either single or any dual combination of interventions at a time. |
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