| Abstract: |
| Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) are a threatened sea turtle species that nests on beaches along the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Our goal is to mathematically explore the relationship between air temperature and emergence success of hatchings across multiple nesting seasons to better anticipate the potential impact of climate change on subsequent loggerhead populations. Using data from southeast Florida, we build a statistical model representing the relationship of air temperature and hatchling emergence success. The results of our statistical model of emergence success feed into the dynamics during the nesting seasons of the eggs and hatchlings in a submodel on daily time scale (in summer). The submodel is connected to an age-structure model with two juvenile and one adult classes on a yearly time scale. We illustrate the effect of temperature changes across these life stages. This application is a discrete time model with hybrid features; the nesting submodel with a daily time scale is embedded in the population model on a yearly time scale. |
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