| Abstract: |
| In epidemiology, the dilution effect is the phenomenon wherein increases in host biodiversity (more host species) result in lower disease in a given species. The opposite phenomenon is called an amplification effect. The drivers of dilution versus amplification have been vigorously debated in the epidemiological literature. Disagreements are partially due to different kinds of SIR-type ODE models being used to study direct transmission pathogens (i.e., pathogens transmitted via host contact) and environmental transmission pathogens (e.g., pathogens transmitted via spores or other infectious propagules).
In this talk, I show that common epidemiological ODE models for direct transmission and environmental transmission can be unified under a single framework via fast-slow dynamical systems theory. I then show how that unified framework can be used to explain the different patterns of amplification and dilution that have been observed in previous modeling studies. My work extends the existing dilution effect theory for direct and environmental transmission pathogens and points the way forward for developing a unified dilution effect theory. |
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