Special Session 46: 

Mathematical Analysis of a Vector-borne Disease Model with Imperfect Quarantine

Daozhou Gao
Shanghai Normal University
Peoples Rep of China
Co-Author(s):    Xiulei Jin, Shuwan Jin
Abstract:
Quarantine and isolation are public health interventions that are widely implemented in containing the spread of infectious diseases by separating exposed or ill persons from the healthy population. Quite a few mathematical models of isolation and quarantine have been proposed and studied in the last two decades, but few on indirectly transmitted diseases. We develop a deterministic mosquito-borne disease model where imperfect quarantine is implemented to reduce the disease transmission from infected humans to susceptible mosquitoes. The basic reproduction number $R_0$ is computed and the model equilibria and their stabilities are analyzed. We prove that a subcritical (backward) bifurcation is possible at $R_0=1$. Numerical simulations show that the quarantine regime can make a significant contribution in avoiding a large disease outbreak.