| Abstract: |
| Lassa fever (LF) is an acute haemorrhagic viral infection with clear zoonotic origin. Animal reservoir of the virus is the most common rodent species in Africa, natal multimammate mice (\\textit{Mastomys natalensis}). Human infection occurs upon exposure to virus-contaminated environment. The disease is widespread in West Africa with about few thousand cases reported each year, including few hundred of deaths. This ranks LF as of a serious public health concern and necessitates further investigation of its epidemiology. In our talk, we present the analysis of surveillance data on LF incidence in Nigeria, one of the most affected countries, for 2012--2017. We explicitly specify main causative factors on seasonality of LF epidemics that are seasonal migration of rodents linked to rainfall pattern, and low awareness on LF pathogenicity among local residents. Using epidemiological modelling (maximum likelihood estimation, dynamic model of infection transmission in rodents), we quantify their relative effects on course of epidemic and assess the overall risk of contacting a virus along the year. Additionally, we apply cross-convergent method to show that rainfall pattern is indeed one of the main factors explaining LF incidence. Our findings will help to design more efficient intervention programs to constrain LF spread in the future. |
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