Display Abstract

Title Age-Based Stochastic Model of HPV

Name Omayra Y Ortega
Country USA
Email omayra.ortega@asu.edu
Co-Author(s)
Submit Time 2014-02-03 13:49:22
Session
Special Session 95: Modeling the spread and control of infectious diseases
Contents
Approximately 630 million people are infected with Human Papillomavirus (HPV) worldwide with six million new cases every year [4]. With over 200 different types identified, HPV is the most common sexually transmitted infection contributing to multiple adverse health outcomes including cervical cancer. In our study, we develop a stochastic model which describes the transmission of HPV infection in both men and women. We separate the women into the age groups of 12-19, 20-29, 30-65, 65+ and observe the rates of progression to disease, pre-cancerous cells, cancer and death in women. Our studies show that the 12-19 age group progresses to infection with HPV at the lowest rate, while the number of woman presenting with Low-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesion (LSIL) peaks during the ages of 30-65 and women progressing to oncogenic HPV types peak at the age of 65+.