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| In this paper, a diffusion model is proposed to describe the diffusion process of technology. This model is suitable for modeling diffusion processes of all those technologies that require great initial investments and public subsidies, such as renewable energy technology. We divided the whole individuals into three groups, and the diffusion process is divided into two stages, each stage has internal and external factors affect the communication process, and the external factors are different in each stage which is media and policy respectively. The adoption process is described by a system of ordinary differential equations. Numerical simulations are carried out, and the model analysis shows that both mass media and incentive policies will accelerate the adapter of technology reach its equilibrium with much faster rate, and increase the density of adopters. It further shows that any one of the mass media and incentive policies is blocked, it will hinder another diffusion stage. Therefore, it needs to control the external factors reasonably when we popularize the technology, and make the technical diffusion more saving and efficient. Finally, the renewable energy technology diffusion stage is empirical analyzed. |
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