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| We introduce an SEAIR-based, anti-gravity model to investigate the spread of an infectious disease in two regions which are connected by transportation. As a submodel, an age structured system is constructed to incorporate the possibility of disease transmission during travel, where age is the time elapsed since the start of the travel. The model is equivalent to a large system of differential equations with dynamically defined delayed feedback term. After describing fundamental, but biologically relevant properties of the system, we obtain disease transmission dynamics results in terms of the basic reproduction number. We parametrize our model for influenza and use real demographic and air travel data for the numerical simulations. The model is also fitted to the first wave of the A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic influenza. |
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