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| In Africa, the spread of vector-borne diseases has been accelerated via human population movements due to poverty and geopolitical conflicts. Hence control of the vector-borne diseases has been strongly demanded. As one of traditional disease intervention mechanisms in the presence of human population movement, border screening has been used in many African countries. However, its effectiveness is still under debate. It is due to focusing only on the functionality of border screening without considering the timing to use.
In this paper, we attempt to qualitatively answer whether the use of border screening is a desirable action in an epidemic. A novel mathematical model with border screening and a transition probability of status change during travelling is developed. In fact, these two features have not been explicitly considered in many previous studies. A condition to check timing of the border screening is established in terms of a lower bound of the basic reproduction number. If the lower bound is greater than one, which indicates a pandemic, then the border screening may not be effective and the disease persists. In this case, a local level control strategy should be conducted. Moreover, vector population control is a crucial factor to eradicate the disease. |
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