| Emanuela Penitente |
University of Naples Federico II
Italy |
| Co-Author(s): Anna Autoriello, Sabrina Averga, Bruno Buonomo, Rossella Della Marca, Alfredo Guarino, Cristina Moracas, Emanuela Penitente, Marco Poeta |
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| Abstract: |
| Despite the widespread availability of effective vaccines, pertussis remains a significant public health concern in many high-income countries, particularly because of its severe impact on infants. In recent decades, several regions have experienced a resurgence of pertussis, with recurrent outbreaks and an overall increase in incidence \cite{yeung2017update}. These patterns highlight the need for modelling tools that are both mathematically rigorous and accessible to health practitioners, supporting the exploration of intervention scenarios and evidence-based planning. To this end, we present PerTexP (Pertussis Time Exploration), an interactive MATLAB tool for scenario-based analysis of pertussis transmission under different vaccination strategies \cite{buonomo2025pertexp}. PerTexP is based on a discrete-time, stage-structured compartmental model with two age classes, infants and non-infants, and explicitly incorporates maternal immunisation, infant vaccination, and booster doses in older individuals. Through a graphical user interface, the tool allows users to compare vaccination scenarios and assess their impact on transmission. Applied to the 2024 Italian pertussis outbreak \cite{poeta2024pertussis}, PerTexP suggests an increasing burden over a five-year horizon and shows that increasing maternal coverage yields a larger reduction in cumulative incidence than an equivalent increase in booster uptake, while elimination requires strengthening both interventions.
\bibliographystyle{plain}
\begin{thebibliography}{99}
\bibitem{buonomo2025pertexp}
Autoriello, A. et al. (2026). PerTexP: scenario-based exploration of pertussis dynamics under maternal and infant vaccination. medRxiv, 2026-03.
\bibitem{poeta2024pertussis}
Poeta, M. et al. (2024). Pertussis outbreak in neonates and young infants across Italy, January to May 2024: implications for vaccination strategies. Eurosurveillance, 29(23), 2400301.
\bibitem{yeung2017update}
Yeung, K. H. T. et al. (2017). An update of the global burden of pertussis in children younger than 5 years: a modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 17(9), 974-980.
\end{thebibliography} |
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