Special Session 82: Dissipative Systems and Applications

Modeling Density-Dependent Emigration Between Two Competing Species of Tribolium: Part II -- Results
Jerome Goddard II
Auburn University Montgomery
USA
Co-Author(s):    J. T. Cronin & R. Shivaji
Abstract:
We present experimental and modeling results for a two-species Tribolium system designed to investigate how density-dependent emigration influences long-term population outcomes. Using data from 12-generation replicate microcosm experiments, together with a parameterized reaction diffusion Lotka-Volterra model, we study the effects of intraspecific density, competitor density, patch size, and permeability on emigration and persistence. By propagating parameter variability through the model, we obtain probabilistic predictions for long-term steady states and compare these predictions with persistence patterns observed in the microcosms. The results suggest that intraspecific density plays a leading role in shaping emigration behavior, while habitat structure also substantially affects long-term outcomes. This talk emphasizes the main qualitative and probabilistic results, along with the extent to which the model captures experimentally observed persistence and exclusion patterns.