Special Session 84: Mathematical modeling and analysis in spatial ecology and epidemiology

Modelling heterogeneity and its impact on disease transmission dynamics
Yanni Xiao
Xi`an Jiaotong University
Peoples Rep of China
Co-Author(s):    Yanni Xiao, Biao Tang, Pengfei Song
Abstract:
Human heterogeneity is a critical issue in infectious disease transmission dynamics modelling, and it has recently received much attention in COVID-19 studies. In this talk, a novel model with heterogeneity in susceptible individuals is proposed to accurately estimate the final size. Then, a general human heterogeneous disease model with mutation is proposed to comprehensively study the effects of human heterogeneity on basic reproduction number, final epidemic size and herd immunity. We show that human heterogeneity may increase or decrease herd immunity level, strongly depending on some convexity of the heterogeneity function.