Special Session 50: Dynamical systems: Oseledets decomposition, ordered spaces, Lyapunov exponents, and applications

Nonautonomous saddle-node bifurcations and early warning signals in scalar concave and d-concave differential equations
Iacopo P. Longo
University of Exeter
England
Co-Author(s):    Jesus Duenas, Rafael Obaya
Abstract:
We characterise the range of possible dynamical behaviours for scalar concave and d-concave nonautonomous differential equations, and demonstrate that nonautonomous saddle-node bifurcations provide a universal mechanism underlying certain critical transitions known as rate-induced tipping. Furthermore, we establish that finite-time Lyapunov exponents serve as reliable and rigorous early warning indicators of such transitions in these systems, as a change in sign occurs prior to the onset of a nonautonomous saddle-node bifurcation.