| Abstract: |
| We develop a two-patch SEIR model for Ebola transmission that incorporates human behaviour and mobility. We consider two patches representing urban and rural environments, and in each patch, the population is further divided into two groups based on their willingness to adhere to intervention measures. Both adherence and travel is influenced by disease prevalence. Unlike traditional approaches assuming permanent migration, we adopt a more realistic framework where individuals retain residency in their home region while spending time in the other region.
We analyse key model properties, including the control reproduction number, and show that the disease dies out when this threshold is below one. Parameters are estimated by fitting a simplified version of the model -- excluding behavioural heterogeneity and travel -- to epidemiological data from the 2018--2020 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We then conduct scenario-based analyses to investigate the impact of behavioural responses, misinformation, regional resource allocation, and travel duration on epidemic dynamics. The results highlight the importance of adaptive behaviour and mobility in shaping disease spread and control strategies. |
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