Special Session 112: Nonlinear Dynamics: Methods, Models, and Applications

A stage-structured seasonal model for the spread of flavescence dor\`ee in vineyards
Attila Denes
Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged
Hungary
Co-Author(s):    Abel Garab, Nigussie Abeye Shiferaw
Abstract:
Flavescence dor\`ee is one of the most severe phytoplasma diseases affecting grapevines, posing an increasing threat to vineyards worldwide. The bacterial agent causing the disease is spread by the American grapevine leafhopper. We present a compartmental model for the spread of flavescence dor\`ee incorporating stage structure in the vectors. To account for seasonal weather variations and the behaviour of the vectors, we consider periodic transmission, birth and death rates. We calculate the basic reproduction number as the spectral radius of a linear operator and show that it serves as a threshold parameter for disease persistence. Finally, we provide numerical simulations to assess the effect of varying key model parameters.