| Abstract: |
| The mosquito-borne infection chikungunya hit Guangdong China in 2025. We propose and fit an epidemic model to the chikungunya reported cases from four hit hardest cities in Guangdong. We analyze mosquito surveillance data from Guangzhou. We assume a unified reporting ratio across cities and over time. We reveal huge temporal changes in transmission rate, which might be due to huge changes in reporting effort in Jiangmen and Foshan. We find the infection attack rates are very different across cities. If we instead assume similar level of infection attack rates across cities, then the reporting ratio must be very different between cities. We also analyze the correlations between transmission rates and environmental factors and mosquito data. But given the short time period, these correlations should be taken with caution. |
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