Contributed Session 3:
Modeling, Math Biology and Math Finance
A Mathematical Model for Measles Transmission Dynamics Based on Real Data from Turkey
Osman R Isik
Mugla Sitki Kocman University Turkey
Co-Author(s): Egemen Kaya
Abstract:
Measles is a highly contagious disease despite the availability of an effective vaccine. In this study, we develop a deterministic compartmental model to analyze measles transmission dynamics in Turkey, incorporating infection among vaccinated individuals. The structural identifiability of the model is examined. Model parameters are estimated using measles case data in Turkey from 1970 to 2023, with key parameters assumed to be time-dependent due to changes in vaccination and immigration rates.
A practical identifiability analysis has also been conducted for the model. The basic reproduction number is calculated, indicating persistent disease dynamics. Numerical results emphasize the critical role of vaccination in controlling measles spread.