| Abstract: |
| In recent years, with the deepening of bilateral economic interdependence, trade frictions between China and US become increasingly frequent.What causes trade frictions between the two countries and will these trade frictions escalate to trade war? Based on the reality of US-China economic and trade relations, this paper tries to explore how financial market Spillover influences US-China trade frictions by constructing a time-varying SVAR model.The results show that, the probability of lower-level trade frictions will increase, but the probability of lower level trade frictions escalating to trade wars will decrease. |
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