Special Session 103: 

Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic from early reported case data

Glenn F Webb
Vanderbilt University
USA
Co-Author(s):    Zhihua Liu, Pierre Magal, Ousmane Seydi
Abstract:
A model of a COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic is developed. Early reported case data is used to predict the cumulative number of reported cases in the final size of the epidemic. The key features of the model are the timing and magnitude of public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.