| Abstract: |
| Background
The end of an epidemic has a substantial impact on the healthcare system and control strategies as well as economics associated with travel industry. We investigate the objective determination of the end of outbreak using mathematical models.
Methods
We identify the source of infection for the last cases right before the declaration of Ebola-free. To compensate the shortage of objectiveness for the declaration of Ebola-free, we employ the stochastic dependence model which can describe and the impact of sexual transmission and undiagnosed cases.
Results
The probability of observing additional cases gives the objective standards to decide the end of an epidemic considered as probability of extinction. Then, we suggest the statistical determination of the end of Ebola outbreak with significant criteria.
Conclusions
the declaration date should be delayed as the duration of persistence of Ebola virus or proportion of undiagnosed cases increase. |
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